• Table of Contents
    • Abstract
    • Keywords
    • Article
      • Defining and detecting cycles
      • Locating turning points
      • Model-based procedures for defining and locating turning points
      • Measuring cycle features
      • Using multivariate information in defining and detecting business cycles
      • Automated construction of the reference cycle
      • Model-based procedures for defining detecting and extracting a reference cycle
      • Conclusion
    • See Also
    • Bibliography
    • How to cite this article

business cycle measurement

Don Harding and Adrian Pagan
From The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, 2008
Edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume
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Abstract

We describe different ways of measuring the business cycle. Institutions such as the NBER, OECD and IMF do this by locating the turning points in series taken to represent the aggregate level of economic activity. The turning points are determined according to rules that either come from a parametric model or are nonparametric. Once located, information can be extracted on cycle characteristics. We also distinguish between cases where single and multiple series are used to represent the level of activity.
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Keywords

Burns, A.; business cycle; business cycle measurement; censoring operations; coincident indices; crossing points; data filters; fluctuations vs cycles; growth cycles; Markov switching (MS) processes; Mitchell, W.; periodic cycles; random variables; reference cycle; spectral analysis; turning points
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Article

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How to cite this article

Harding, Don and Adrian Pagan. "business cycle measurement." The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online. Palgrave Macmillan. 22 May 2013 <http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_B000333> doi:10.1057/9780230226203.0179

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