• Table of Contents
    • Abstract
    • Keywords
    • Article
      • Before the demographic transition
      • Declining mortality
      • Fertility transition
      • Population growth
      • Changing age distribution over the demographic transition
      • Some consequences of the demographic transition
    • See Also
    • Bibliography
    • How to cite this article

demographic transition

Ronald D. Lee
From The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, 2008
Edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume
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Abstract

The ‘demographic transition’ refers to the fall of fertility and mortality from initially high to subsequent low levels and accompanying changes in the population. It began around 1800 with declining mortality in Europe, and is expected to be complete worldwide by 2100. In that time the global population will have risen tenfold, the ratio of elders to children will have risen by a factor of ten, longevity will have tripled, and fertility fallen from six births per woman to two. Individual and population ageing will pose many challenges, from life-cycle planning to the rising costs of health care and retirement.
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Keywords

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Article

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How to cite this article

Lee, Ronald D. "demographic transition." The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online. Palgrave Macmillan. 01 November 2014 <http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_D000074> doi:10.1057/9780230226203.0374

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