prediction markets
From The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, 2008
Edited by
Steven
N.
Durlauf
and
Lawrence
E.
Blume
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Abstract
Prediction markets, sometimes referred to as ‘information markets’, ‘idea futures’ or ‘event futures’, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate dispersed information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.
Keywords
constant absolute risk aversion (CARA); decision markets; efficient market hypothesis; favourite-longshot bias; forecasting; Gallup Poll; information aggregation; Iowa Electronic Market; prediction; prediction markets; probability; spread betting
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See Also
Thanks to Colin Camerer, Robin Hanson, Ryan Oprea, Charles Plott, Paul Rhode, and Erik Snowberg for very helpful comments.
How to cite this article
Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz. "prediction markets." The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online. Palgrave Macmillan. 20 May 2013 <http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_P000340> doi:10.1057/9780230226203.1328

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